(2/28/17) Moderate Severe Weather Risk for Mid-West United States

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issues a Moderate Risk for parts of the Mid-West. This area is surrounded by an enhanced risk, followed by a slight and marginal risks encompassing the area. All modes of Severe Weather will be possible, including violent tornados, damaging winds, and large hail. For a detailed look at the area impacted take a look at the attached image below, followed by the text from the SPC:

Moderate Severe Weather Risk

The full text of the SPC outlook is included below:

 SPC AC 281630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Valid 281630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN MO...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...WESTERN/NORTHERN KY...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS TO THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENHANCED AREA FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS TOWARD THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of the
   lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley through tonight.  Strong
   tornadoes will be possible, especially across portions of the lower
   and middle Ohio Valley. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are
   expected.

   ...Portions of the MO Ozarks through the middle MS Valley and the
   Ohio Valley region...

   A prominent warm sector will continue to build
   northward/northeastward across the region through tonight, as a
   midlevel speed maximum advances from the southern Rockies
   east-northeastward toward the Ohio Valley region. As lower/middle
   60s dewpoints also develop northward/northeastward, an expansive
   area of MLCAPE around 500-2000 J/kg -- aided by steep midlevel lapse
   rates surmounting returning moisture -- will support vigorous
   convective development. With warm-sector-coinciding effective shear
   around 40-70 kt, a widespread area of conditional significant-severe
   potential will exist -- especially from late afternoon into the
   overnight hours. Present indications are that clusters of storms
   will be evolving from eastern parts of the central/southern Great
   Plains northeastward to the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan by
   late afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a baroclinic band --
   with this activity spreading eastward into tonight. Confidence has
   increased in more widespread severe-hail potential with this
   activity, including significant severe hail. Open-warm-sector
   convection will likely evolve along a low-level jet through parts of
   the Ohio Valley tonight as additional moistening occurs. Effective
   SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 will support tornado potential with evolving
   supercell clusters. This includes the potential for nocturnal
   significant tornadoes, and tornado probabilities have been
   increased.

   ...Portions of the Southeast...
   Destabilization along the southern/eastern flanks of convection over
   the TN Valley region may support some increase in convective
   intensity with storm clusters advancing toward the southern
   Appalachians. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany this
   activity.

   ..Cohen.. 02/28/2017

For those impacted by severe weather make sure you stay weather aware with multiple ways to get the latest information. Such recommendations are: a smartphone application, a television, and a weather radio.

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